U.S. solar photovoltaic manufacturing capital expenditure is expected to decline year over year in 2027, following an estimated $3 billion in spending in 2026, according to pv magazine.
A bottom-up analysis of more than 50 active manufacturing companies found that domestic solar manufacturing investment peaked at nearly $4 billion in 2024. First Solar and Qcells accounted for more than half of that total, making the peak largely dependent on their concentrated investment commitments.
Many Announced Projects Face Funding Uncertainty
More than 70% of the projects announced over the previous 12–18 months that were expected to generate spending in 2027 reportedly lack secured funding or have stalled.
Although the number of U.S. solar manufacturing facilities linked to capital spending has exceeded 60, no other investor has matched the annual spending scale of First Solar and Qcells. This has contributed to a gradual downturn in manufacturing investment since 2025.
Tesla Could Reshape the Outlook
Tesla’s proposed manufacturing expansion, spanning silicon ingots through solar modules, remains the biggest uncertainty in the 2027 forecast. The timing of investment and the deployment of equipment reportedly sourced from China have yet to be clarified.
The report identifies project financing and investment schedules as critical factors in forecasting U.S. solar manufacturing capacity through 2030 and beyond. While solar demand may continue to expand, weaker manufacturing investment could affect the pace and scale of domestic production growth.
Gamko energy, Worldwide Energy and Manufacturer, is a professional solar module manufacturer with a 10-year experience in production and quality control since 2008.