Views: 0 Author: Site Editor Publish Time: 2026-09-10 Origin: Site
China’s polysilicon industry is expected to remain under pressure as the market works through excess capacity, weak demand and ongoing structural adjustments, according to industry expert Lv Jinbiao at the 2026 New Era of Solar and Energy Storage Forum on September 9.
China’s polysilicon output reached around 540,000 tons in the first half of 2026, down 9.8% year on year. Effective production capacity stood at approximately 2.85 million tons, with another 700,000 tons of completed but idle capacity.
Polysilicon prices fell sharply during the first half of the year, reaching around RMB 30,000 per ton in July, well below producers’ cash costs. Prices recovered somewhat in August, but trading remained limited as downstream manufacturers continued to consume existing inventories rather than actively replenish raw materials.
Lv believes that the industry’s push to avoid selling below production costs can eventually be passed through to downstream markets. Once existing inventories are depleted, normal procurement is expected to resume.
However, he cautioned that mandatory energy-efficiency standards alone may have limited impact on excess capacity, as China already has more than 3 million tons of relatively efficient polysilicon capacity.
Rather than relying solely on capacity cuts, polysilicon producers are being urged to strengthen industry self-discipline. Leading companies are expected to support a common principle of not selling below cost, while maintaining production according to actual sales and prioritizing inventory reduction.
With demand growth slowing, restoring prices to around the cost level may be achievable. The bigger challenge, however, will be maintaining a stable supply-demand balance.
The polysilicon industry is likely to operate at low utilization rates with limited profits or even break-even margins throughout 2027, as producers continue to undergo structural adjustment and work toward a more sustainable market balance.
