China Polysilicon Market Remains in A Wait-and-See Phase

China’s polysilicon market remained largely subdued this week, with only a small number of transactions reported as producers and buyers continue to negotiate a new price level.

Based on limited deals, N-type polysilicon prices were estimated at RMB 40–43/kg, but actual trading volumes remained low. Most purchases were driven by essential restocking, while some transactions were completed through futures warehouse receipts. A broad market pricing system has yet to resume.

Supply Still Outpaces Demand

China imported 790.7 tonnes of polysilicon in July, at an average price of $21.77/kg, while exports reached 2,344.1 tonnes at an average of $10.81/kg, leaving the country as a net exporter.

On the domestic supply side, major producers continued releasing capacity in August, although some manufacturers reduced output for maintenance. Meanwhile, wafer producers maintained relatively low operating rates, limiting polysilicon demand.

As a result, the market is expected to remain oversupplied, with inventories likely to increase in August.

Price Recovery Still Needs Real Demand

Although some producers are seeking higher prices, the limited volume of actual transactions suggests that the market has not yet reached a broad pricing consensus.

The next key factor will be downstream demand. A meaningful recovery in wafer production and end-market installations will be needed before polysilicon prices can establish a more sustainable upward trend.